Every Sunday, one page on the economic announcements coming that week — and what markets actually did the last two dozen times each one landed.
Real numbers from the briefing. Pick an announcement:
Those bars say how often each market made a move of half a percent or more on that announcement's day, across the last two dozen occasions. Bonds react to almost every Fed decision. The euro mostly ignores them. Knowing that before Wednesday afternoon is worth more than another opinion about where prices are heading.
The briefing has run every week since July. It's good enough to share now, and honest feedback is worth more to me than subscriptions are. Paid tiers come later — everyone who joins during early access keeps a long free run and gets a say in what gets added next.
Nothing in the briefing is proprietary, and that's deliberate — every figure traces back to a source you can check yourself.
The exact publication date of every inflation, jobs, growth and spending release, straight from the St. Louis Fed's own database.
Four years of closing prices for the dollar index, gold, the S&P 500, the Nasdaq 100, 10-year Treasury yields and EUR/USD.
What's scheduled in the week ahead, with the consensus forecast and the previous reading for each announcement.
Live odds on rate decisions, inflation and recession — priced by people with real money at stake, not by commentators.
For each announcement, we take its last two dozen publication dates and measure what those six markets actually did on each of those days. That produces two numbers per market: the average size of the move, and how often it exceeded half a percent. Compared against a normal trading day, that's the whole method.
Two limits worth stating plainly. The measurements are close-to-close, so a sharp move that fades by the closing bell is understated. And two dozen occurrences is enough to see a pattern, not enough to bet a mortgage on — which is why the briefing reports frequencies and never predictions.