Every Sunday, one page on the economic announcements coming that week, and what markets actually did the last 100 times each one landed, down to the first hour. Stocks, bonds, gold, currencies, the rand, and Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana.
Real numbers from the 28 October 2026 briefing. Pick an announcement:
A daily chart hides most of it. We also measure the 60 minutes straight after each announcement, on one minute prices, against the same clock hour on a fixed set of 120 ordinary weekdays (76 for crypto). 1x is an ordinary hour.
| First hour after | Bitcoin | EUR/USD | USD/ZAR | Gold |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jobs report15:30 SA | 1.8x | 2.4x | 2.1x | 2.4x |
| Inflation (CPI)15:30 SA | 2.5x | 2.2x | 2.0x | 2.1x |
| Fed decision21:00 SA | 3.0x | 5.5x | 4.5x | 4.9x |
Every jobs and inflation report since 2018 for the currencies and gold (about 95 of each), every Fed decision since 2021 (45), and since 2021 for Bitcoin, as of the 28 October 2026 briefing. After the Fed, EUR/USD's first hour beat three quarters of ordinary hours in 98% of decisions; an announcement that did nothing would manage 25%. The Fed lands in the evening, normally a quiet hour for currencies, which makes its multiple look bigger. SA times shown are from 1 November until mid March; in the US summer each lands an hour earlier. Nothing here says which way the price went.
Explore every market and announcementLive charts from TradingView, set to South African time. Pick a market, then look at what it does in the hour after the next announcement. The chart shows the moment; the briefing shows how often that moment has been rough before.
Charts by TradingView. Live prices, shown for context only.
Those bars say how often each market made a big move on that announcement's day, across the last 100 occasions. A big move is measured against what is normal for that market: half a percent for stocks, gold and currencies, 5 basis points for the 10 year yield, and 2 percent for Bitcoin, which moves more on any given day. The Nasdaq moves big on nearly three out of four jobs Fridays. By the close the euro mostly ignores them. Knowing that before Friday afternoon is worth more than another opinion about where prices are heading.
Crypto needed a closer look. On the daily numbers it looks calm on announcement days. Inside the first hour it is not: after the jobs report, inflation and Fed decisions, Bitcoin's price range has been about double an ordinary hour's, and the move has usually faded by the end of the day. Currencies and gold have an even rougher first hour: after a Fed decision, EUR/USD's has averaged five and a half times an ordinary hour. So the briefing measures that first hour for all of them.
If the hours are that predictable, can you trade them? We replayed simple rules on real minute prices from two years of releases, eight markets from Bitcoin to the rand, costs included. Average result per trade:
Predictable in size. Not in direction.
Buying the breakout lost money in all eight markets, over 1,750 test trades. That is why the briefing never gives buy or sell calls: it tells you when to be careful, and it tells you what the data can’t do.
The briefing has run every week since July, measured on every release since 2018. Individual subscriptions are opening now. Leave your email and we’ll send you the subscription details.
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Nothing in the briefing is proprietary, and that's deliberate. Every figure traces back to a source you can check yourself.
The exact publication date of every inflation, jobs, growth and spending release, straight from the St. Louis Fed's own database, alongside the release schedules of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Federal Reserve.
Closing prices for the dollar index, gold, the S&P 500, the Nasdaq 100, 10 year Treasury yields, EUR/USD, Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana, covering the last 100 releases of each announcement.
Minute by minute prices for Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana from Binance, used to measure the first hour after each announcement.
Minute by minute prices for EUR/USD, USD/ZAR, GBP/USD, USD/JPY and gold since 2018, from Dukascopy's price feed and the HistData archive, used to measure the first hour after each announcement.
What's scheduled in the week ahead, with the consensus forecast and the previous reading for each announcement.
Live odds on rate decisions, inflation and recession, priced by people with real money at stake, not by commentators.
Two views of every announcement. The day: for each announcement, we take its last 100 publication dates and measure what each market did from close to close. That gives two numbers per market: the average size of the move, and how often it was a big move for that market. The first hour: for currencies, gold and crypto, we measure the 60 minutes after each release on one minute prices, and compare it with the same clock hour on a fixed set of ordinary weekdays spread across the same years. Then we count how often the release hour beat three quarters of ordinary hours. An announcement that did nothing would do that 25% of the time, so every finding comes with the odds of it being luck. Compared against what is normal, that's the whole method.
Two limits worth stating plainly. For stocks and bonds the measurements are still close to close, so a sharp move that fades by the closing bell is understated. And a hundred occurrences show a pattern, not a promise, which is why the briefing reports frequencies and never predictions.