Sample issue: this is the real briefing for the week of 28 October 2026, unedited. Prices and odds are as they stood on the Wednesday morning of the Fed decision.
Week of 28 October 2026
| When (SA time) | Event | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wed 28 Oct 14:30 | GBP Annual Budget Release | n/a | n/a |
| Wed 28 Oct 20:00 | USD Federal Funds Rate | 4.00% | 4.00% |
| Wed 28 Oct 20:00 | USD FOMC Statement | n/a | n/a |
| Wed 28 Oct 20:30 | USD FOMC Press Conference | n/a | n/a |
| Thu 29 Oct 14:30 | USD Advance GDP q/q | 3.2% | 1.5% |
| Thu 29 Oct 14:30 | USD Core PCE Price Index m/m | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Thu 29 Oct 15:15 | EUR Main Refinancing Rate | 2.65% | 2.65% |
| Thu 29 Oct 15:15 | EUR Monetary Policy Statement | n/a | n/a |
| Thu 29 Oct 15:45 | EUR ECB Press Conference | n/a | n/a |
| Fri 30 Oct 10:00 | Monthly crypto options expiry | n/a | n/a |
Each bar is the share of past release days on which that market made a big move. Longer bar, rougher day. This says nothing about direction. A big move means 0.5% for stocks, gold and currencies, 5 basis points for the US 10Y Yield, 2% for Bitcoin, 3% for Ethereum and 4% for Solana. Each market has a very different ordinary day, so one threshold for all of them would mislead.
Daily numbers can hide a spike that fades before the day closes. This measures the first 60 minutes after each announcement, from one minute Binance prices, against the same clock hour on 76 ordinary weekdays from Dec 2020 to Oct 2026, the same days every week, so the comparison does not drift. Each cell shows how big the hour's high to low range was compared with an ordinary hour, then how often it beat the top quarter of ordinary hours. Ordinary hours do that 25% of the time, so 25% means no different from normal, and anything from about 46% up is more than chance would give. Nothing here says which way the price went. Releases measured run from Jan 2021 to Oct 2026.
| Announcement | Bitcoin | Ethereum | Solana |
|---|---|---|---|
| CPI | 2.5x · 67% | 2.4x · 72% | 2.2x · 67% |
| NFP | 1.8x · 68% | 1.7x · 70% | 1.4x · 57% |
| PPI | 1.3x · 43% | 1.3x · 48% | 1.1x · 25% |
| GDP | 1.1x · 33% | 1.1x · 42% | 1.0x · 27% |
| Retail Sales | 1.2x · 27% | 1.1x · 37% | 1.0x · 23% |
| Core PCE | 1.2x · 35% | 1.2x · 40% | 1.0x · 33% |
| FOMC | 3.0x · 78% | 2.6x · 87% | 2.5x · 76% |
| ISM Manufacturing | 1.0x · 17% | 1.0x · 18% | 1.1x · 25% |
| ISM Services | 1.0x · 15% | 0.9x · 17% | 1.0x · 23% |
| Crypto options expiry | 0.9x · 25% | 0.9x · 15% | 0.8x · 12% |
Bitcoin in the hour after FOMC: rougher than an ordinary hour in 78% of the last 46 releases, with a range averaging 3.0x. Ordinary hours clear that bar 25% of the time, so the chance of that from an ordinary hour is less than 1 in a million. It holds across the sample: 83% of the older 23 releases and 74% of the recent 23. On the daily numbers the same event looks ordinary (1.06x), so the reaction mostly fades before the close.
Ethereum in the hour after FOMC: rougher than an ordinary hour in 87% of the last 46 releases, with a range averaging 2.6x. Ordinary hours clear that bar 25% of the time, so the chance of that from an ordinary hour is less than 1 in a million. It holds across the sample: 91% of the older 23 releases and 83% of the recent 23. On the daily numbers the same event looks ordinary (1.09x), so the reaction mostly fades before the close.
Bitcoin in the hour after CPI: rougher than an ordinary hour in 67% of the last 60 releases, with a range averaging 2.5x. Ordinary hours clear that bar 25% of the time, so the chance of that from an ordinary hour is less than 1 in a million. It holds across the sample: 73% of the older 30 releases and 60% of the recent 30. On the daily numbers the same event looks ordinary (1.11x), so the reaction mostly fades before the close.
Quieter than an ordinary hour for at least one coin: Crypto options expiry.
Daily numbers can hide a spike that fades before the day closes. This measures the first 60 minutes after each announcement, from one minute prices, against the same clock hour on 120 ordinary weekdays from Jun 2018 to Oct 2026, the same days every week, so the comparison does not drift. Each cell shows how big the hour's high to low range was compared with an ordinary hour, then how often it beat the top quarter of ordinary hours. Ordinary hours do that 25% of the time, so 25% means no different from normal, and anything from about 46% up is more than chance would give. Nothing here says which way the price went. Releases measured run from May 2018 to Oct 2026. Hours by source: HistData 3720, Dukascopy 2064.
| Announcement | EUR/USD | Gold | USD/ZAR | GBP/USD | USD/JPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPI | 2.2x · 75% | 2.1x · 81% | 2.0x · 70% | 2.3x · 82% | 2.7x · 71% |
| NFP | 2.4x · 91% | 2.4x · 94% | 2.1x · 89% | 2.4x · 92% | 3.2x · 93% |
| PPI | 1.4x · 52% | 1.4x · 57% | 1.3x · 58% | 1.5x · 54% | 1.7x · 55% |
| GDP | 1.4x · 50% | 1.5x · 60% | 1.3x · 57% | 1.4x · 50% | 1.6x · 55% |
| Retail Sales | 1.4x · 51% | 1.3x · 62% | 1.3x · 41% | 1.3x · 50% | 1.6x · 63% |
| Core PCE | 1.3x · 51% | 1.3x · 57% | 1.3x · 55% | 1.4x · 50% | 1.4x · 53% |
| FOMC | 5.5x · 98% | 4.9x · 100% | 4.5x · 96% | 4.9x · 98% | 5.5x · 95% |
| ISM Manufacturing | 1.4x · 55% | 1.3x · 54% | 1.2x · 34% | 1.3x · 42% | 1.5x · 54% |
| ISM Services | 1.3x · 55% | 1.3x · 45% | 1.3x · 42% | 1.2x · 39% | 1.4x · 54% |
USD/JPY in the hour after FOMC: rougher than an ordinary hour in 95% of the last 44 releases, with a range averaging 5.5x. Ordinary hours clear that bar 25% of the time, so the chance of that from an ordinary hour is less than 1 in a million. It holds across the sample: 95% of the older 22 releases and 95% of the recent 22. On average 66% of the first 15 minutes' move was given back by the end of the hour.
EUR/USD in the hour after FOMC: rougher than an ordinary hour in 98% of the last 45 releases, with a range averaging 5.5x. Ordinary hours clear that bar 25% of the time, so the chance of that from an ordinary hour is less than 1 in a million. It holds across the sample: 100% of the older 22 releases and 96% of the recent 23.
GBP/USD in the hour after FOMC: rougher than an ordinary hour in 98% of the last 45 releases, with a range averaging 4.9x. Ordinary hours clear that bar 25% of the time, so the chance of that from an ordinary hour is less than 1 in a million. It holds across the sample: 100% of the older 22 releases and 96% of the recent 23.
Live prices from a prediction market where people bet real money. Crowd opinion, not a forecast with a track record.
Non economic events with a plausible financial link. An economic calendar will never show you these.
Shipping and supply disruption feeds straight into oil, which feeds into inflation data weeks later.
Moves European gas, wheat, defence stocks and the euro.
Shapes tax, spending and regulation expectations; equities and the dollar price this in early.
Rules on custody, listing and trading decide what exchanges and P2P desks are allowed to offer.